Fortune Teller predition puzzle
There is a village that has five fortune tellers.
The first fortune teller’s prediction has 83% chance of being correct.
The second has 63% chance of being correct,
The third 44%,
The fourth 33 %, and
The fifth 5 %.
If you were trying to get the best prediction of your future for selecting a one lucky draw coupon out of 2 Coupons, which fortune teller would you go to?
I’ll go with no. fifth fortune teller, as there may be 95% chance are being correct if i’ll go with just opposite what the prediction told by her/him.
I will go with the fifth fortune teller, since he has a chance of giving prediction which will be 95% false. Hence just choosing the opposite of his prediction will leave me with 5% of losing chance. Which will be the least possibility of choosing compared to other fortune tellers
The answer given above (which seems to be the expected one) seems sensible at first look, but a careful examination of the puzzle question puts the answer in doubt. The ‘problem’ with the answer is that it will work only if the scenario is a ‘binary’ one – i.e., whether to select a particular option or not. (e.g. consider a tennis match where both sides are ‘at par’ with each other in skills. If the question was to pick which player / team would win, then taking the advice of the fifth teller and going with the opposite choice has the highest possibility of winning. This is because, in a tennis match, one of the two sides must win. But if the scenario was a tournament, and the question was to pick the final winner, the tactic won’t work, because for any player / team the teller predicts as winner, there are ‘n – 1’ number of alternative choices if ‘n’ players / teams are enrolled in the tournament. Hence, there is no definite “opposite” of prediction.)
The puzzle presents the question as “selecting a lucky draw coupon” which is similar to the tournament scenario. above (There are ‘n’ number of coupons from which the (winning) one has to be selected.) If the teller says ‘take coupon No. 7′, which number is the “opposite”? Of course, there is another ’round-about’ solution wherein one can ask whether to select a particular coupon or not. (e.g. you may ask: If I select No. 7, will I win?) Then it is a ‘binary’ scenario where there is an ‘opposite’. If the teller says ‘No’, select that number with a 95% chance of winning. But, given the fact that, in an unbiased lucky draw, all numbers have equal chances of winning, you will have to try with every coupon number till the teller gives a ‘No’ response for this ‘trick’ to work.
Puzzle Modification – Selecting one lucky draw out of two 🙂
Your Answer
More puzzles to try-
Why not?
A bus driver was heading down a street in Delhi. He went right past a stop sign without stopping, he ...Read More »No one wants to meet me Puzzle
Fate has decided that you will only be pleased to meet me when you need me Maybe that is why, ...Read More »Air with scream
I provide air, and yet I scream and praise my idols. What am I?Read More »Find the number of brother and sister
A family I know has several children. Each boy in this family has as many suters as brothers but each ...Read More »Who am I?
You are my brother, but I am not your brother. Who am I?Read More »The cream is heavier than the Milk
The cream is heavier than Milk. True or False?Read More »The Reunion
Five friends from across the United States planned to meet at a convention in Milwaukee. Each friend came from a ...Read More »Knight and Dragon riddle
A dragon and knight live on an island. This island has seven poisoned wells, numbered 1 to 7. If you ...Read More »How is this possible?
A group of ten people are going out for pizza but only two of them have an umbrella to keep ...Read More »Defective stack of coins puzzle
There are 10 stacks of 10 coins each. Each coin weights 10 gms. However, one stack of coins is defective ...Read More »never rude for you
I never be rude for you, Though I flag my tongue for all to see. Who am I?Read More »Relationship Riddle
A conversation between 2 people: A – “Hello. Is this XYZ?” B – “Yes. May I know who is this?” ...Read More »Same Melody
What 3 common songs have the same melody ?Read More »Crack The Graph
Why does the second shape have an open block when the first shape does not?Read More »Never Stop Running Riddle
I never stop running even when I standstill. If I am formed by joining two identical bodies together, can you ...Read More »Coin toss betting having no loss no win puzzle
Two friends were betting. One said to the other, “The coin will be flipped twenty times and each time the ...Read More »Boat in Water riddle
A boat of mass M1 is floating in a lake of water. The volume of the lake is V. The ...Read More »Weightless Elephant
What is bigger than an elephant yet weighs nothing. What is it?Read More »SAVE THE MANKIND
A stark raving mad king tells his 100 wisest men he is about to line them up and that he ...Read More »Can you crack the code and find the name?
The what? This image tells the name of a movie. Can you crack the code and find the name?Read More »