Fortune Teller predition puzzle
There is a village that has five fortune tellers.
The first fortune teller’s prediction has 83% chance of being correct.
The second has 63% chance of being correct,
The third 44%,
The fourth 33 %, and
The fifth 5 %.
If you were trying to get the best prediction of your future for selecting a one lucky draw coupon out of 2 Coupons, which fortune teller would you go to?
I will go with the fifth fortune teller, since he has a chance of giving prediction which will be 95% false. Hence just choosing the opposite of his prediction will leave me with 5% of losing chance. Which will be the least possibility of choosing compared to other fortune tellers
The answer given above (which seems to be the expected one) seems sensible at first look, but a careful examination of the puzzle question puts the answer in doubt. The ‘problem’ with the answer is that it will work only if the scenario is a ‘binary’ one – i.e., whether to select a particular option or not. (e.g. consider a tennis match where both sides are ‘at par’ with each other in skills. If the question was to pick which player / team would win, then taking the advice of the fifth teller and going with the opposite choice has the highest possibility of winning. This is because, in a tennis match, one of the two sides must win. But if the scenario was a tournament, and the question was to pick the final winner, the tactic won’t work, because for any player / team the teller predicts as winner, there are ‘n – 1’ number of alternative choices if ‘n’ players / teams are enrolled in the tournament. Hence, there is no definite “opposite” of prediction.)
The puzzle presents the question as “selecting a lucky draw coupon” which is similar to the tournament scenario. above (There are ‘n’ number of coupons from which the (winning) one has to be selected.) If the teller says ‘take coupon No. 7′, which number is the “opposite”? Of course, there is another ’round-about’ solution wherein one can ask whether to select a particular coupon or not. (e.g. you may ask: If I select No. 7, will I win?) Then it is a ‘binary’ scenario where there is an ‘opposite’. If the teller says ‘No’, select that number with a 95% chance of winning. But, given the fact that, in an unbiased lucky draw, all numbers have equal chances of winning, you will have to try with every coupon number till the teller gives a ‘No’ response for this ‘trick’ to work.
More puzzles to try-
- 3 + 3 = 3 5 + 4 = 4 1 + 0 = 3 2 + 3 = 4 ...Read More »
- Which letter replaces the question markRead More »
- Five puzzleFry ship’s pirates have obtained 100 gold coins and have to divide up the loot. The pirates are all ...Read More »
- There are 10 stacks of 10 coins each. Each coin weights 10 gms. However, one stack of coins is defective ...Read More »
- Dr.Willam wants to operate for three different persons who were wounded. But he had only two surgical gloves. There is ...Read More »
- Which clock works best? The one that loses a minute a day or the one that doesn’t work at all?Read More »
- In the gear arrangement, To which one will the needle touch, 1 OR 2Read More »
- A man leaves his house in the morning to go to office and kisses his wife. In the evening on ...Read More »
- A murderer is condemned to death. He has to choose between three rooms. The first is full of raging fires, ...Read More »
- A bridge will collapse in 17 minutes. 4 people want to cross it before it will collapse. It is a ...Read More »
- In a country where everyone wants a boy, each family continues having babies till they have a boy. After some ...Read More »
- A devotee goes to three temples, temple1, temple2 and temple3 one after the other. In front of each temple, there ...Read More »
- There is a perfectly accurate analog watch with hour, minute, and second hands. How many times a day do all three ...Read More »
- Four days are there which start with the letter ‘T‘. I can remember only two of them as “Tuesday , Thursday”. ...Read More »
- Two fathers took their sons to a fruit stall. Each man and son bought an apple, But when they returned ...Read More »
- A farmer is taking her eggs to the market in a cart, but she hits a pothole, which knocks over ...Read More »
- In the middle of the confounded desert, there is the lost city of “Ash”. To reach it, you will have ...Read More »
- Solve this logic sequence puzzle by the correct digit- 8080 = 6 1357 = 0 2022 = 1 1999 = ...Read More »
- Jasmine, Thibault, and Noah were having a night out and decided to order a pizza for $10. It turned out ...Read More »
- Some numbers are very mysterious. They are all integers. They have more than one digit. If you multiply them with ...Read More »